Look, I'm a reasonably intelligent guy, and I know I should have this concept understood by now, but I guess I just don't get the distinction. What is the difference between making +EV plays and "results-oriented thinking"?
Let me explain.
I was having a conversation with a fellow poker player about a hand I played in a live game--and his opinion was that I suffer from results-oriented thinking. Here's what happened. It's a $1/$2 NLHE game, 8 players at the table. I'm sitting in the 9 seat next to the dealer. Across from me in Seat 6 is a 20-something maniac with about $900 in front of him. Two hands before this one he 4-bet 74o. His opponent flat called with AA (why he didn't 5b preflop, I will never know) and then shoved the flop which came 4Q7r, and the maniac takes his $400 stack. The guy with AA chose not to rebuy, so we're playing 8-handed.
Anyways, I'm in the CO with $160 total. Maniac raises UTG+1 to $12. It folds to me and I look down at JJ, one of my least favorite hands. Basically, there's 3 ways to play it and every one of them is wrong. I decide to flat and see a flop before I play for stacks. Everyone else folds and we see a flop heads up which comes T84ss. Maniac insta-bets $45 into a $27 pot. If I call, the pot will bloat to $117 and I'll have $103 left, and I'll be committed if an undercard falls on the turn. Taking my time, I look him over to see how comfortable he looks, and to me, he looks comfortable. My read is he's caling if I shove. Now, that doesn't necessarily mean I'm beat, but he hadn't overbet the pot before so I had no idea if it meant anything. He could have an overpair to my jacks, or 77-TT, or Tx, or a complete air ball. I just wasn't sure, and since I was taking so long I decided to see the turn and if it was a blank (No A, K, Q, or T), I'd get it in. Turn falls an offsuit 9 and he shoves. I don't think the 9 helped him at all--if I was ahead before I'm still ahead now. I'm open ended now so if I'm behind at least I'm not drawing dead. Not sure where I am in the hand I call. He has AT for TPTK; the river bricks and I scoop.
Maybe this is going to sound defensive, but if I had been dealt QQ+ or AK, I would have played for stacks from the get-go. But with 22-JJ, AJs or AQ in this spot, I'm certainly not folding but I want to see a flop before I play for stacks. With these lesser hands, there's just so many things that can go wrong.
Is this results-oriented thinking? I guess, yeah, you could say so. But with a medium-strength hand is that so bad? Honestly, we make results-oriented decisions all the time. Like folding 72o preflop. How is results-oriented thinking and making +EV plays any different? Can one of you savvy pros explain this to me?
Thanks,
M
Sometimes you just don't want the reminder.
Looking at this graph:
Is a whole lot easier than looking at this graph:
'Nuff said.
M
Imagine for a moment you're a major league baseball player. Your goal at the plate is to succeed in getting a hit roughly 30% of the time, and get on base 40%. In essence, this means you accept you are going to fail to do so 60% of the time. That is a harsh figure to cope with. To remain confident in your ability while failing more than half the time, and yet to continue to focus all your effort into succeeding at the plate. It takes a tremendous amount of mental toughness, physical ability, and an unfailing passion for the game.
Poker players face this same challenge. It's an odd occupation--playing poker--and if you're doing it for a living, it can also be tough on the people around you. One might speculate it's even tougher than for the ball player, as the poker player must succeed more often than he fails, just to beat the rake and break even.
I had a bit of a rough night tonight, and wanted to get a few thoughts written down now, in hopes that I can put the bad beats to bed, and free my mind from the ghosts of variance's past. Every few weeks or so, I have one of those nights where nothing seems to go right. I patiently wait for good hands, make good plays at the right times against the right opponents, and yet the deck rewards the weak player with the miracle river or runner-runner nuts hand after hand, ad nauseum. That's poker, and that's why weak players continue to play the game. Because sucking out is fun. And honestly, I want them to chase their 2- and 3-outers to the river every time. I'll take my pocket kings vs underpairs all the way to the river every time. I have to keep that in mind. I WANT them to chase to the river. If I am the favorite, I want them to chase. Please, oh please, chase that sliver of a chance to win.
Even so, what does it take to be able to make nights like this irrelevant? Because isn't that what it should be? Completely irrelevant to the one-long-session theory of poker? I'd like to think so--I'm just not there yet. Until I am, I'm going to need a few reassurances. So, let me take a minute to remind myself of some basic facts of the game.
Fact #1: Bad beats are inevitable. If you play poker, you're going to take bad beats. Lots of them. And sometimes, you're going to experience nights chock full of them. There's nothing you can do about it. Be patient, be appropriately aggressive, gather as much information as you can, and always re-evaluate as the hand plays out. That's all you can do. Make the best decisions you can and hope for the best.
Fact #2: The random number generator has no respect for pocket aces. Take a deck of cards, and deal out 6 hands, face up. Imagine how the preflop action might play out, but don't muck any cards just yet. Now deal out a 5-card board. Which hand is best? Pocket aces versus 5 other random hands only has about a 30% chance of winning the pot. The harsh truth is trash wins, and it wins most often in the hands of a weak but perennially hopeful player who's willing to take that trash hand to showdown.
Fact #3: Some players have no idea what they are doing and some are just gambling like crazy, and you should be overwhelmingly pleased to find them both at your tables. These players are the reason you play the game. They're the ones putting food on your table. Be nice to them, and congratulate them on that lucky river. If all goes well, they'll try to put a beat on you again.
So, self, here's my advice to you. First, stop focusing on the results. You can do everything right and still lose. Focus instead on making the best decisions you can, and let the results take care of themselves. Second, remember there is no doomswitch, there is no unholy conspiracy in place to separate you from your bankroll. There are the hands you're dealt and how you play them, and that's all. Third, remember that no matter how good you are, you are going to make mistakes. Fourth, learn all you can from your mistakes, and then forgive yourself for making them. Fifth, do not stand in the way of your own success through negative thought or action.
Okay, I think that should work for tonight. I especially like Fact #3. That reminder always makes me feel better.
M
I posted last night about my disappointment in my performance at the tables yesterday. But today, it's just making me chuckle.
Looking at my stats, I'm still improving. For instance, My win rate for all of 2010 was around 0.3BB/100. My win rate for 1st Qtr 2011 was 0.8BB/100. And despite giving back half of my April winnings in one night, my win rate for April stands at 1.11BB/100. Definitely headed in the right direction.
Looked at my session from last night and saw this and just couldn't believe it. AA won only 78.3% of the time, and KK won only 63.6% of the time. That's really, really low. Historically those numbers have been in the 85 to 90% range. In fact, they've been cracked so often this month that I've broken even playing KK. That's pretty hard to do. In limit hold'em, you're going to take KK to showdown unless you have an A on board, or the board pairs and there's too much action, or you get coordinated boards multi-way. I've been pretty good about letting KK go in these situations. It's the rivered 2-outers and rivered gutshots that are getting paid off for 2 big bets, and I don't think it's realistic to think I can (or should) get away from KK on the river in these spots while getting what is usually 8-to-1 on a call or better. The fact is the deck just isn't breaking even, and my aces and kings are getting cracked.
It's amusing to me, really, because it means I'm doing something right. It tells me that my method of game selection is working like it should. It tells me, combined with other stats I've looked at, that I'm picking the right opponents and continually putting myself in +EV situations. They aren't working out according to expectation, that's all. In the long run, however, they will. And I'm fine with that.
M
Great hole cards, few good flops, lots of bad rivers. Gave my fold button plenty of exercise and fought my way back to even--three times...
Cheers!
M
Is that enough alliteration for one title or what?
Yes, boys and girls, I have purchased a new laptop. One that should have no trouble running a HUD. My microstakes villains are all in trouble now! My 2005 model will be recycled back into the world of non-poker, where it might actually be sufficient to its tasks.
That cold chill you just felt was Hell freezing over.
M
Last month I started writing articles for Examiner.com as their Tulsa Poker Examiner. I'm planning on doing a series on online poker, and could use input from some regular grinders on each site. If you put in at least 20000 hands/month, have cashed out at least once this year, and don't mind giving me an interview, please contact me at Mark74105@cox.net. You have your choice of being quoted by name or remaining anonymous. If you're a pro affiliated with a site (like CR), they can receive mention in the article as well.
The series will include subjets such as site profiles and reviews (including training sites), rakeback, player loyalty programs (points, bonuses, medals, etc.), the legalities and realities of playing online (i.e., the recent cash out problems), and others as suggested by the players.
The articles I've published so far have been about the brick & mortar poker rooms we have in the area (Tulsa and northeast Oklahoma). Take a look if you're interested by clicking here.
Thanks in advance for the help!
M
I contacted all 42 casinos in northeast Oklahoma to find out who has a poker room, how many tables, and general info about the cash games they typically have and what their daily tournament schedule is. Put it all together and it ran a little long, so I split it into two articles. If you're going out of town or from out of town, these are the nearby venues for poker.
Alphabetical by city:
Part 1 - Northeast Oklahoma poker rooms (A - R)
Part 2 - Northeast Oklahoma poker rooms (S - Z)
Cheers!
M
I finally have a nemesis. He plays LHE 6-max rush, .25/.50 and 1/2 and he put a bunch of beats on me tonight. AQs vs A6o, board runs out ATxx6. JJ vs A4, flop AKT, I call his donk bet on flop & turn and fold river, finally convinced. QQ vs A2, flop looks good but he spikes the A on the turn and I let it go. Saved 2 bets on a cooler. KK vs AA. I raise from BTN and the BB 3bets and I flat. Flop 227. I raise his flop bet and he calls. Turn A and I check behind. River comes another 2 and I call his value bet which I expect him to make with plenty of worse hands, but this time he has the nuts. Oh, well. Starting off April at 7BB/100. Wouldn't it be nice if I end the month with this average? Oh, baby...
Cheers!
M
Net for the month was a paltry $60 for 100 hours of play. I'm ballin, yo. When I go out to a club tomorrow night, all I have to do is say, "Hey, girl, I play poker for 60 cents an hour. Wanna jump my bones?"
Just for fun, here's the graph.
Here's to our hands holding up in April. Cheers!
M
