Results-oriented thinking is bad?

Look, I'm a reasonably intelligent guy, and I know I should have this concept understood by now, but I guess I just don't get the distinction. What is the difference between making +EV plays and "results-oriented thinking"?

Let me explain.

I was having a conversation with a fellow poker player about a hand I played in a live game--and his opinion was that I suffer from results-oriented thinking. Here's what happened. It's a $1/$2 NLHE game, 8 players at the table. I'm sitting in the 9 seat next to the dealer. Across from me in Seat 6 is a 20-something maniac with about $900 in front of him. Two hands before this one he 4-bet 74o. His opponent flat called with AA (why he didn't 5b preflop, I will never know) and then shoved the flop which came 4Q7r, and the maniac takes his $400 stack. The guy with AA chose not to rebuy, so we're playing 8-handed.

Anyways, I'm in the CO with $160 total. Maniac raises UTG+1 to $12. It folds to me and I look down at JJ, one of my least favorite hands. Basically, there's 3 ways to play it and every one of them is wrong. I decide to flat and see a flop before I play for stacks. Everyone else folds and we see a flop heads up which comes T84ss. Maniac insta-bets $45 into a $27 pot. If I call, the pot will bloat to $117 and I'll have $103 left, and I'll be committed if an undercard falls on the turn. Taking my time, I look him over to see how comfortable he looks, and to me, he looks comfortable. My read is he's caling if I shove. Now, that doesn't necessarily mean I'm beat, but he hadn't overbet the pot before so I had no idea if it meant anything. He could have an overpair to my jacks, or 77-TT, or Tx, or a complete air ball. I just wasn't sure, and since I was taking so long I decided to see the turn and if it was a blank (No A, K, Q, or T), I'd get it in. Turn falls an offsuit 9 and he shoves. I don't think the 9 helped him at all--if I was ahead before I'm still ahead now. I'm open ended now so if I'm behind at least I'm not drawing dead. Not sure where I am in the hand I call. He has AT for TPTK; the river bricks and I scoop.

Maybe this is going to sound defensive, but if I had been dealt QQ+ or AK, I would have played for stacks from the get-go. But with 22-JJ, AJs or AQ in this spot, I'm certainly not folding but I want to see a flop before I play for stacks. With these lesser hands, there's just so many things that can go wrong.

Is this results-oriented thinking? I guess, yeah, you could say so. But with a medium-strength hand is that so bad? Honestly, we make results-oriented decisions all the time. Like folding 72o preflop. How is results-oriented thinking and making +EV plays any different? Can one of you savvy pros explain this to me?

Thanks,
M

____________________________________________________________________________________________ April 10,2011 Your friend is saying you suffer from "results oriented thinking" because you're unwilling to take the higher variance play when it's been established you're a likely favorite vs his range in those spots. From my perspective it looks like there are 2 ways you can go about playing this guy. You either 3/4/5bet him preflop with your "defensive" range knowing that he 4bets with 47o and that hands like AJ are a favorite. This has the problem of being +EV but a big variance play as he isn't exactly that far behind with 2 random unders and he's gonna suck out. A lot. Ideally your play is to call, see a flop, and then get it in. Hopefully in a spot where you're a bigger favorite than you would've been preflop. As long as you don't call to much/to often preflop and then subsequently fold (essentially bleeding cash to this guy) the flop route is a better route. I'll try to use an example Ok so random hands. Let's say you have AJo and he has 47o. If you shove preflop and he calls, you're a 2-1 (66% equity of the pot) favorite. You however decide to see a flop. The flop comes J42. You shove he calls and now you're a 4-1 favorite (80% equity of the pot) as long as you don't call preflop and fold on the flop to often to this guy (thereby negating that 14% difference in equity) you're better off seeing the flop first. At least that's how I see it ThePenguinElitist April 10,2011 From what I understand results oriented thinking and +ev plays are two separate things. There is every decision you make which is either +ev, -ev, or neutral ev. Then there is the result and trying to decide whether your decision was +ev or not. So you start with the ev of decision and then see the result and have to decide whether your decision was correct. Results orientated means your thoughts are clouded by the results of the hand. I hope that makes sense. 00bradical April 10,2011 Results oriented thinking just means you don't want to lose. You're passing up a +EV play because you don't have a big advantage and you'd like to wait until you have a bigger edge over this guy who's clearly going to give you more opportunities later ThePenguinElitist April 10,2011 the AA hand is results oriented thinking. put simply, flatting AA there against the maniacs 4 bet allows the guy with AA to win far more money - hugely + EV. or to put it another way, the guy with 74o won the hand (results oriented thinking) but didnt make a + EV play tankelton