Imagine for a moment you're a major league baseball player. Your goal at the plate is to succeed in getting a hit roughly 30% of the time, and get on base 40%. In essence, this means you accept you are going to fail to do so 60% of the time. That is a harsh figure to cope with. To remain confident in your ability while failing more than half the time, and yet to continue to focus all your effort into succeeding at the plate. It takes a tremendous amount of mental toughness, physical ability, and an unfailing passion for the game.
Poker players face this same challenge. It's an odd occupation--playing poker--and if you're doing it for a living, it can also be tough on the people around you. One might speculate it's even tougher than for the ball player, as the poker player must succeed more often than he fails, just to beat the rake and break even.
I had a bit of a rough night tonight, and wanted to get a few thoughts written down now, in hopes that I can put the bad beats to bed, and free my mind from the ghosts of variance's past. Every few weeks or so, I have one of those nights where nothing seems to go right. I patiently wait for good hands, make good plays at the right times against the right opponents, and yet the deck rewards the weak player with the miracle river or runner-runner nuts hand after hand, ad nauseum. That's poker, and that's why weak players continue to play the game. Because sucking out is fun. And honestly, I want them to chase their 2- and 3-outers to the river every time. I'll take my pocket kings vs underpairs all the way to the river every time. I have to keep that in mind. I WANT them to chase to the river. If I am the favorite, I want them to chase. Please, oh please, chase that sliver of a chance to win.
Even so, what does it take to be able to make nights like this irrelevant? Because isn't that what it should be? Completely irrelevant to the one-long-session theory of poker? I'd like to think so--I'm just not there yet. Until I am, I'm going to need a few reassurances. So, let me take a minute to remind myself of some basic facts of the game.
Fact #1: Bad beats are inevitable. If you play poker, you're going to take bad beats. Lots of them. And sometimes, you're going to experience nights chock full of them. There's nothing you can do about it. Be patient, be appropriately aggressive, gather as much information as you can, and always re-evaluate as the hand plays out. That's all you can do. Make the best decisions you can and hope for the best.
Fact #2: The random number generator has no respect for pocket aces. Take a deck of cards, and deal out 6 hands, face up. Imagine how the preflop action might play out, but don't muck any cards just yet. Now deal out a 5-card board. Which hand is best? Pocket aces versus 5 other random hands only has about a 30% chance of winning the pot. The harsh truth is trash wins, and it wins most often in the hands of a weak but perennially hopeful player who's willing to take that trash hand to showdown.
Fact #3: Some players have no idea what they are doing and some are just gambling like crazy, and you should be overwhelmingly pleased to find them both at your tables. These players are the reason you play the game. They're the ones putting food on your table. Be nice to them, and congratulate them on that lucky river. If all goes well, they'll try to put a beat on you again.
So, self, here's my advice to you. First, stop focusing on the results. You can do everything right and still lose. Focus instead on making the best decisions you can, and let the results take care of themselves. Second, remember there is no doomswitch, there is no unholy conspiracy in place to separate you from your bankroll. There are the hands you're dealt and how you play them, and that's all. Third, remember that no matter how good you are, you are going to make mistakes. Fourth, learn all you can from your mistakes, and then forgive yourself for making them. Fifth, do not stand in the way of your own success through negative thought or action.
Okay, I think that should work for tonight. I especially like Fact #3. That reminder always makes me feel better.
M
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