Taking time off from cash games

Played last night. Started with $100 and ran it up to $550 in less than 2 hours. Then the doomswitch turned on. I dropped to $225 and took a break for an hour.

Came back and bought in for $100 again. Once again, lost to runner runner 2x and moved all in with TPGK + sd + fd and couldn't get there, and my opponent had me outkicked (I had JTs, he had KTo).

Took today off from poker completely except for writing this blog. Waiting for The Poker Blueprint to arrive from Amazon.com.

Going to play the morning tournament tomorrow, but avoiding the cash games for now. I have a bunch of other projects that will keep me away from the tables completely this weekend. Probably for the best. My hourly rate has dipped from $74/hr (Weeks 1 & 2), to a piddly $10/hr (YTD). Still winning, but not enough to make a living (unless I work 80hrs/wk). Basically, I won $2K during those first two weeks and have broken even ever since. What's the answer? I wish I knew. Am I doing something wrong? Probably, but I can't put my finger on it. I keep getting the money in when I'm either ahead or a math favorite, but I can't hold up or get there. Is it the cards or is it me? After 8 weeks of this I'm just not sure.

You know what it feels like? It feels exactly like it did 2 years ago when I started out playing 1c/2c NL on Pokerstars. My game has improved 10 times over since then, but it feels like I'm going through a second puberty playing live.

M

Longer session, fewer playable hands, more bad beats

All in on the turn with top 2 pair, called by top pair, King kicker. River: K.

3-bet pf with AA. Original raiser calls. Flop J56ss. Checks to me. I bet $50 into a $65 pot. He shoves, I call off my remaining $50, hoping to see KK/QQ. He has JJ.

Limp-reraise all in preflop with AA. 3 players call. Board QT9xQ. The two hands I saw were J9o and QTo.

Dunno how long this will continue. Will seriously consider time off if this happens again tomorrow night.

M

Common sense poker: handling adversity

Continuing with my "common sense" series, I revisit my blog entry from April 7, 2011, where I talked about running bad and having the right mindset. Click below for the full article.

Common sense poker: handling adversity
So, self, here's my advice to you. First, stop focusing on the results. You can do everything right and still lose. Focus instead on making the best decisions you can, and let the results take care of themselves. Second, ...

Struggle continues

Another loss and frankly, there was nothing interesting about it worth recounting here. I didn't make any big mistakes. I just either couldn't hit or couldn't get paid off. I got coolered in a big pot where I made a flush and my opponent made the nut flush. But w/e...I had straight and flush draws, the pot was 3-way, and I made my flush on the river. Not gonna cry over it.

Going to take tomorrow off from poker completely and get back to work on Friday.

M

Flirting with busto

FYI, this is a vent-post. I'm running bad and my BR is almost gone.
There are no smaller stakes to be played live. I may actually have to use my own money to play if things don't turn around in my next session.

Six weeks ago, I started with $300, added another $600 two weeks later from my PS cashout. In two weeks, my BR reached a height of $3138. I used $1000 for personal expenses (car repair, household goods). Week 3 and 4 were rough, where I lost $1108. Week 5 and 6 I rebounded a bit, winning $1064. I used $225 for personal expenses from week 3 to week 6, putting my BR at $1869 to start week 6.

Five straight sessions without a win has my bankroll teetering on the brink of busto. In those five sessions, I've lost $1440. I keep getting it in good against a donkey who calls my pfr with T6o, J4o, T4s, etc, flops a pair or weak draw, gets it in bad and sucks out.

I'm playing well. I'm not tilt-calling off in bad spots. Example: I held QQ, raised pf, got 1 caller (a player I had pegged as a calling station). Flop KQ4. Bet the pot. Villain calls. Turn T. I bet 3/4 pot. Villain calls. River J. I bet 1/3 pot and villain went all in. I folded, face-up. Villain showed ATo.

The above has become a recurring theme of 2nd best vs calling stations.
KK vs 52o. (Obv I raised pf, villain called from BB.) Flop 529sss (I have Ks). Bet, call. Turn Qh, bet, call. river Jc, bet, call.
QQ vs A3s, aipf. Board:667A9.
Called pfr w/AhTh vs QQ. Flop Tc6hTd, check-called. Donked turn 8h for half pot. River Qh. Donk-called a min raise. I would have folded if I hadn't made the flush.
AA vs J6s. He makes 2 pair.
AJ vs 99. Flop J64ss. Villain overbet the flop, I shoved. He calls my all-in thinking I have a draw. Turn 9.

The pot that really hurt last night was this one, even though it's not a bad beat:
Stack sizes: At the start of the hand, I have 90BB, villain has 110BB.
I'm dealt QsJs in MP. 2 limpers, I raise 5x. 3 callers.
Flop comes TsJh4s.
1 check, villain donks, I raise, folds back to villain who reraises. I thought about just calling. Villain's most likely holding is JT. 44 is also a possibility. I'm discounting naked straight or flush draws because this player would just call rather than reraise. So I think about the math. Against AJ/KJ, I'm a slight underdog. Against JT, it's basically the same, a slight underdog. Against a set it's a bit worse but not horrible.
I decide there's just too much equity to fold it. And if my flush comes, I don't want my opponent freezing up. I shove. Villain insta-calls and shows Th4h for bottom 2.
I'm actually a 52/47 favorite. But, I have to hit. Turn is the 8h.
Now I have more outs, but it can't be a heart.
River 5h.

Look, I realize that when the money went in, I was behind. I accept that. I own it. I just don't accept that I continue to play better cards and the donkeys are constantly getting lucky with trash. I realize bad beats happen. I just have a hard time swallowing the frequency with which I'm getting beat this week.

I just feel like I'm playing well, getting my money in good on a regular basis, and while I'm not happy with my results, I accept the concept that results and play are not directly connected in the short-term. Nevertheless, it is hurting my confidence in both my play and in the poker gods. I don't care who it is, when you're running bad, you can't feel 100% confident.
M

This week has been a bust, pun intended

With poker site offices being raided in Costa Rica, the news does not look good. Props to QuadJacks for their coverage. Special thanks to DrPauly, Chuck Kidd, et al.

Live poker this week has been rough. I'll do the official results tomorrow, but it's not looking good. I've been coolered and drawn out on constantly (constantly in this case means 6 coolers over 19 hours and 4 suckouts in pots of 100BB or more). Feel okay with my play for the most part, with just two exceptions--neither of which was for a lot of money.

All that being said, I'm down just 145.5BB for the week, which in the scheme of things is not all that bad. Shit happens, it's just my turn to have it happen to me. Time to take some soap and a stiff-bristled brush and scrub the shit off, that's all.

I didn't get as much time on the felt as I'd planned, either. I had to re-plumb my bathroom. My house was built in the 1950's, and everything is lead and steel. Thankfully the plumbing is accessible from a crawlspace, and not encased in cement. But it still kicked my ass trying to cut out the old trap and replace all the pipes with new PVC. On the plus side, I should only have to do it once.

/end whine

Correct me if I'm mistaken, but didn't FTP announce last week that they would have an official announcement this week about cashouts? I've looked but I can't find anything. Did I miss it?

M

Graphic Perspective

Sometimes you just don't want the reminder.

Looking at this graph:


Is a whole lot easier than looking at this graph:


'Nuff said.
M

Handling adversity

Imagine for a moment you're a major league baseball player. Your goal at the plate is to succeed in getting a hit roughly 30% of the time, and get on base 40%. In essence, this means you accept you are going to fail to do so 60% of the time. That is a harsh figure to cope with. To remain confident in your ability while failing more than half the time, and yet to continue to focus all your effort into succeeding at the plate. It takes a tremendous amount of mental toughness, physical ability, and an unfailing passion for the game.

Poker players face this same challenge. It's an odd occupation--playing poker--and if you're doing it for a living, it can also be tough on the people around you. One might speculate it's even tougher than for the ball player, as the poker player must succeed more often than he fails, just to beat the rake and break even.

I had a bit of a rough night tonight, and wanted to get a few thoughts written down now, in hopes that I can put the bad beats to bed, and free my mind from the ghosts of variance's past. Every few weeks or so, I have one of those nights where nothing seems to go right. I patiently wait for good hands, make good plays at the right times against the right opponents, and yet the deck rewards the weak player with the miracle river or runner-runner nuts hand after hand, ad nauseum. That's poker, and that's why weak players continue to play the game. Because sucking out is fun. And honestly, I want them to chase their 2- and 3-outers to the river every time. I'll take my pocket kings vs underpairs all the way to the river every time. I have to keep that in mind. I WANT them to chase to the river. If I am the favorite, I want them to chase. Please, oh please, chase that sliver of a chance to win.

Even so, what does it take to be able to make nights like this irrelevant? Because isn't that what it should be? Completely irrelevant to the one-long-session theory of poker? I'd like to think so--I'm just not there yet. Until I am, I'm going to need a few reassurances. So, let me take a minute to remind myself of some basic facts of the game.

Fact #1: Bad beats are inevitable. If you play poker, you're going to take bad beats. Lots of them. And sometimes, you're going to experience nights chock full of them. There's nothing you can do about it. Be patient, be appropriately aggressive, gather as much information as you can, and always re-evaluate as the hand plays out. That's all you can do. Make the best decisions you can and hope for the best.

Fact #2: The random number generator has no respect for pocket aces. Take a deck of cards, and deal out 6 hands, face up. Imagine how the preflop action might play out, but don't muck any cards just yet. Now deal out a 5-card board. Which hand is best? Pocket aces versus 5 other random hands only has about a 30% chance of winning the pot. The harsh truth is trash wins, and it wins most often in the hands of a weak but perennially hopeful player who's willing to take that trash hand to showdown.

Fact #3: Some players have no idea what they are doing and some are just gambling like crazy, and you should be overwhelmingly pleased to find them both at your tables. These players are the reason you play the game. They're the ones putting food on your table. Be nice to them, and congratulate them on that lucky river. If all goes well, they'll try to put a beat on you again.

So, self, here's my advice to you. First, stop focusing on the results. You can do everything right and still lose. Focus instead on making the best decisions you can, and let the results take care of themselves. Second, remember there is no doomswitch, there is no unholy conspiracy in place to separate you from your bankroll. There are the hands you're dealt and how you play them, and that's all. Third, remember that no matter how good you are, you are going to make mistakes. Fourth, learn all you can from your mistakes, and then forgive yourself for making them. Fifth, do not stand in the way of your own success through negative thought or action.

Okay, I think that should work for tonight. I especially like Fact #3. That reminder always makes me feel better.

M

Stats that make me LOL

I posted last night about my disappointment in my performance at the tables yesterday. But today, it's just making me chuckle.

Looking at my stats, I'm still improving. For instance, My win rate for all of 2010 was around 0.3BB/100. My win rate for 1st Qtr 2011 was 0.8BB/100. And despite giving back half of my April winnings in one night, my win rate for April stands at 1.11BB/100. Definitely headed in the right direction.

Looked at my session from last night and saw this and just couldn't believe it. AA won only 78.3% of the time, and KK won only 63.6% of the time. That's really, really low. Historically those numbers have been in the 85 to 90% range. In fact, they've been cracked so often this month that I've broken even playing KK. That's pretty hard to do. In limit hold'em, you're going to take KK to showdown unless you have an A on board, or the board pairs and there's too much action, or you get coordinated boards multi-way. I've been pretty good about letting KK go in these situations. It's the rivered 2-outers and rivered gutshots that are getting paid off for 2 big bets, and I don't think it's realistic to think I can (or should) get away from KK on the river in these spots while getting what is usually 8-to-1 on a call or better. The fact is the deck just isn't breaking even, and my aces and kings are getting cracked.

It's amusing to me, really, because it means I'm doing something right. It tells me that my method of game selection is working like it should. It tells me, combined with other stats I've looked at, that I'm picking the right opponents and continually putting myself in +EV situations. They aren't working out according to expectation, that's all. In the long run, however, they will. And I'm fine with that.

M

How bad can I run in SNGs? Pretty @X$!% bad

LHE SNG
1st orbit, 1st hand I played:

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J A
2 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, BTN 3-bets, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls

Flop: (12 SB) A 3 8 (4 players)
SB bets, BB folds, Hero raises, BTN calls, SB calls

Turn: (9 BB) J (3 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, BTN calls, SB calls

River: (15 BB) 4 (3 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, BTN 3-bets, SB calls, Hero calls

Results: 24 BB pot
Final Board: A 3 8 J 4
BTN showed 4 4 and won 24 BB (16.5 BB net)
SB mucked 5 A and lost (-7.5 BB net)
Hero mucked J A and lost (-7.5 BB net)

Got knocked out of this one holding AA, lost to rivered 2 pair by a guy holding 74o.

***

LHE SNG#2
Folded mostly. Raise preflop, 4 callers, miss, check/fold, mostly.
This is the one I got knocked out on:

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2 2
UTG+2 raises, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO calls, BTN folds, SB calls, Hero calls

Flop: (10 SB) 7 2 K (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+2 bets, MP1 raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG+2 caps, MP1 calls, Hero calls

Turn: (11 BB) 3 (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+2 raises, MP1 folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG+2 caps, Hero calls

River: (19 BB) J (2 players)
Hero bets and is all-in, UTG+2 calls

Results: 22 BB pot
Final Board: 7 2 K 3 J
UTG+2 showed K Tand won 22 BB (13.5 BB net)
Hero mucked 2 2 and lost (-8.5 BB net)

***

Hope you're running better than I am.

M