Stats that make me LOL

I posted last night about my disappointment in my performance at the tables yesterday. But today, it's just making me chuckle.

Looking at my stats, I'm still improving. For instance, My win rate for all of 2010 was around 0.3BB/100. My win rate for 1st Qtr 2011 was 0.8BB/100. And despite giving back half of my April winnings in one night, my win rate for April stands at 1.11BB/100. Definitely headed in the right direction.

Looked at my session from last night and saw this and just couldn't believe it. AA won only 78.3% of the time, and KK won only 63.6% of the time. That's really, really low. Historically those numbers have been in the 85 to 90% range. In fact, they've been cracked so often this month that I've broken even playing KK. That's pretty hard to do. In limit hold'em, you're going to take KK to showdown unless you have an A on board, or the board pairs and there's too much action, or you get coordinated boards multi-way. I've been pretty good about letting KK go in these situations. It's the rivered 2-outers and rivered gutshots that are getting paid off for 2 big bets, and I don't think it's realistic to think I can (or should) get away from KK on the river in these spots while getting what is usually 8-to-1 on a call or better. The fact is the deck just isn't breaking even, and my aces and kings are getting cracked.

It's amusing to me, really, because it means I'm doing something right. It tells me that my method of game selection is working like it should. It tells me, combined with other stats I've looked at, that I'm picking the right opponents and continually putting myself in +EV situations. They aren't working out according to expectation, that's all. In the long run, however, they will. And I'm fine with that.

M

Sanity check

My results for March are dismal compared to February. So I wanted to take a look at my playing stats for each month and see if there's any glaring reason for it. You're going to get to see this the same time I am. I captured the screens but haven't looked yet.

If I had to make a blind guess, it's going to mostly come down to two things. 1) I'm calling down too light in too many spots. 2) I'm playing too passively. Well, those and some run-bad.

Here's my results graph for February:


Here's my results graph for March:


Here are my stats for February:


Here are my stats for March:


Now let's take a look at what's different.

STAT FEB MAR DIFFERENCE
VPIP: 27.52  27.88  +0.36
PFR: 19.08  19/25  +0.17
WTSD: 46.96  47.17  +0.21
AF: 1.72  1.69  -0.03
3B: 13.18  12.91  -0.27
FT3B: 33.91  30.14  -3.77
ATS: 31.59  32.33  +0.74
FBBTS: 40.99  33.33  -7.66
FSBTS: 72.06  72.96  +0.90
PF AF: 1.69  1.66  -0.03
FL AF: 1.82  1.87  +0.05
TN AF: 1.77  1.74  -0.03
RV AF: 1.44  1.31  -0.13

Well, the major changes I can see are that I'm defending my blind 20% more often than last month and calling (or raising) vs 3bets 20% more often than last month. I can't say these alone are responsible for my nosediving green line, but I'll at least keep these two things in mind for my next few sessions and see what happens.

Good luck to you!
M