Morning tournament - more cash game woes

Seems I can run bad in tournaments just as well as cash games.

Started with 8k chips. I played a total of 7 hands. The first five levels I was card dead. I limped once with 88 and called a raise on the button vs UTG raiser w/AQs. Stacks were too deep at the time to reraise or shove. Whiffed both times. I won one pot with a donk bet in a limped pot 3-handed.

Got blinded down to 6k by the time this hand came up, and the blinds had increased to 300/600/50. HJ limped, BTN shoves for 4500, I'm in the BB and have 66. It's the second best hand I've been dealt so far, as I've mostly been getting K5o and 93o trash. I decide to gamble and reraise all in for 6100. HJ calls. HJ shows 55. BTN shows QJ. Board runs out KT839, giving BTN a straight. I win a small side pot.

The very next hand I'm in the SB holding A9o. It folds around to the guy who had 55 last hand, and he limps. It folds to me and I go all in for around 2300. BB folds. The limper calls. He shows T2o. Board runs out KJ482. I finished 18th out of around 50 players.

They have a cash game running and I go take a look at it to see if it's worth joining. There's a chronic bluffer in the game. A chronic gambler in the game. One solid reg and the rest I've never seen or played with before. I decide to take a 1-buyin shot and sit down with $100. First hand I'm in the CO with KQcc. 4 limpers and I raise to $12. 3 callers. Flop AT5cc. The chronic bluffer is 2nd to act and donks for $27. 1 fold, I call, SB folds. Feels like 2nd pair with a gutshot or a naked flush draw. Turn is the Ks. Bluffer goes all in. I call. River blanks and I table my hand. My kings are good.

I go an hour limp-folding, occassionally limp-calling and then folding the flop with middle pairs. Then I pick up AQs on the button with a stack of $132. 6 limpers and I make it $12 to go. 5 callers. Flop AKx. With $70 in the pot, I wanted to make it clear I wasn't folding. I bet $60. 2 callers, both 60+ yr old men. (Neither of them play great, but they're not stupid either.) Turn J. 1 check, then player to my right donks for $50. I go into the tank. AJ? Really? AJ or AK, that's about it. Can this really be happening again? With $250 + the $50 bet in the pot I'm getting 6 to 1 on a call. I have TPTK with a gutshot. I make a crying call. The other villain folds. River blanks. Check-check river. Sure enough, my opponent tables AJ. Another effing 3-outer. Yeah, that's what I was afraid of, I tell him. Nice hand.

I rebuy for $100, which was probably not the best idea in retrospect. I admit I was tilting. I picked up JTdd on the button and raised small, hoping to flop something good and have a pot to go after. 6 players called. Flop came 976d. 2nd player to act (the chronic gambler) came out firing $30 into the $60 pot. I know he has an 8, probably with a pair. This is a clear fold. But do I fold? No, of course not. I'm on tilt. I call. The BB also calls. Turn is the Ad, giving me a flush draw to go with my gutshot. BB (the solid reg) checks. Gambler bets $40. I tank-call, hoping the BB flat-calls. Implied odds don't matter much as I'm only leaving myself $20 behind. The river is the 3h. BB checks. Gambler checks. No value in betting and no fold equity--the BB is a solid reg and he has a hand. I check. BB shows 99 for a set. I am not surprised at all.

I go all in pf with 88 a few hands later for $18, get 2 callers (both the gambler and the AJ player). Board runs out KJTxx, the AJ player shows me K9o. This time I wisely quit.

M

Taking time off from cash games

Played last night. Started with $100 and ran it up to $550 in less than 2 hours. Then the doomswitch turned on. I dropped to $225 and took a break for an hour.

Came back and bought in for $100 again. Once again, lost to runner runner 2x and moved all in with TPGK + sd + fd and couldn't get there, and my opponent had me outkicked (I had JTs, he had KTo).

Took today off from poker completely except for writing this blog. Waiting for The Poker Blueprint to arrive from Amazon.com.

Going to play the morning tournament tomorrow, but avoiding the cash games for now. I have a bunch of other projects that will keep me away from the tables completely this weekend. Probably for the best. My hourly rate has dipped from $74/hr (Weeks 1 & 2), to a piddly $10/hr (YTD). Still winning, but not enough to make a living (unless I work 80hrs/wk). Basically, I won $2K during those first two weeks and have broken even ever since. What's the answer? I wish I knew. Am I doing something wrong? Probably, but I can't put my finger on it. I keep getting the money in when I'm either ahead or a math favorite, but I can't hold up or get there. Is it the cards or is it me? After 8 weeks of this I'm just not sure.

You know what it feels like? It feels exactly like it did 2 years ago when I started out playing 1c/2c NL on Pokerstars. My game has improved 10 times over since then, but it feels like I'm going through a second puberty playing live.

M

Longer session, fewer playable hands, more bad beats

All in on the turn with top 2 pair, called by top pair, King kicker. River: K.

3-bet pf with AA. Original raiser calls. Flop J56ss. Checks to me. I bet $50 into a $65 pot. He shoves, I call off my remaining $50, hoping to see KK/QQ. He has JJ.

Limp-reraise all in preflop with AA. 3 players call. Board QT9xQ. The two hands I saw were J9o and QTo.

Dunno how long this will continue. Will seriously consider time off if this happens again tomorrow night.

M

Short session... losing to runner runner 2x

I'm back to running like Negreanu on HSP.

Buy in for $100. I'm on the button with KQs. HJ raises to $12. Flop AQ3ss. HJ bets $20. Turn K. HJ bets $37. Feels like AQ/AK to me. I fold. He says he had AK and I believe him.

I have $52 left when this hand comes up. I have AKcc UTG and I limp. I'm hoping to reraise aipf. MP raises to $7. 2 callers before it gets back to me. I go all in for $52. MP thinks about it and calls, everyone else folds. MP shows KdJd. Flop comes 9d 6d 3d. FML.

Rebuy for $100. I start this hand with $82. After 6 limpers I find 33 on the button. I limp along. SB calls, BB checks. Flop comes A38dd. BB bets $7. MP calls, I call. Turn 8d, giving me a boat and putting a poss flush on board. BB bets $7. MP calls. I count my stack, which is $73. I decide to call and try to get value from MP who may have a baby flush...BB I put on an ace or an 8, likely with a diamond. I call the $7 turn bet. River Ts. BB bets $15. MP calls. I raise all in for $66. MP folds out of turn. BB calls. I turn over my boat. BB turns over T8 for a rivered boat. FML.

I rebuy for $100 more. When this hand started, I had $98 of it left, and am in the SB. 6 players limp and I raise to $16 w/QdQh. 3 callers. Flop AhTh8d. I tank-check. It checks around. Turn is the 6d. I bet $27 into the $64 pot. 1 fold, MP calls, BTN folds. River 2d. I tank-check. MP tanks and bets $30. He either has the runner runner flush or he's bluffing a missed draw. I don't give him credit for an ace (he would have bet the flop), and I don't think he'd bet a pair of tens. With $150 in the pot and slightly tilting, I call. He shows KdTd.

I take my remaining $27 in chips to the cashier and leave. I lost $273 in less than 2 hours.

Getting tired of nights like this.

M

Common sense poker: handling adversity

Continuing with my "common sense" series, I revisit my blog entry from April 7, 2011, where I talked about running bad and having the right mindset. Click below for the full article.

Common sense poker: handling adversity
So, self, here's my advice to you. First, stop focusing on the results. You can do everything right and still lose. Focus instead on making the best decisions you can, and let the results take care of themselves. Second, ...

Struggle continues

Another loss and frankly, there was nothing interesting about it worth recounting here. I didn't make any big mistakes. I just either couldn't hit or couldn't get paid off. I got coolered in a big pot where I made a flush and my opponent made the nut flush. But w/e...I had straight and flush draws, the pot was 3-way, and I made my flush on the river. Not gonna cry over it.

Going to take tomorrow off from poker completely and get back to work on Friday.

M

Two steps forward, one step back

Got two wins under my belt and then last night took a bunch of beats. Nothing that interesting to note, it's all pretty standard, so I'll abbreviate it.

I had J8s in the BB, UTG+2 raises to $7, 4 callers so I call. Flop J87, I check, UTG+2 bets $20, I raise to $60, he calls. Turn T. I go all in for $40 more, he calls. He has KQ for an oesd. River A.

It's a bad beat so I rebuy.

I get back to even with AQ, flop top pair, and get 3 streets of value.
Got $60 profit with Q3s, flop top pair, it checks around. I turned trips, got 2 streets of value.

Then I get A4cc on the button, called pfr. Flop brings a flush draw on a T-hi board. I call the 1/2 pot flop bet. Everyone else folds so we're heads-up. Villain is short stacked with about $60 left. There's ~$45 in the pot. Turn brings my flush, and I decide to check behind and try to get value from a pair of tens on the river. The river brings another T. He leads for $26. I raised to $76. He calls and shows 5's full. He had bottom set and got there. Oops.

Just a few hands later I raise 5x w/AA. Player on my left makes it $32 to go. I go all in. He calls with JJ. Flop QJ4. Player on my right says he folded A4o. My one-outer doesn't come and I'm done.

Feel like I played well, though I did cost myself and extra $35 with the nut flush hand. I could have just called, and did consider it when the board paired, but decided it was unlikely he'd filled up. Not a big mistake, imo, but a mistake nevertheless.

Will make another run at it tonight.
M

Flirting with busto

FYI, this is a vent-post. I'm running bad and my BR is almost gone.
There are no smaller stakes to be played live. I may actually have to use my own money to play if things don't turn around in my next session.

Six weeks ago, I started with $300, added another $600 two weeks later from my PS cashout. In two weeks, my BR reached a height of $3138. I used $1000 for personal expenses (car repair, household goods). Week 3 and 4 were rough, where I lost $1108. Week 5 and 6 I rebounded a bit, winning $1064. I used $225 for personal expenses from week 3 to week 6, putting my BR at $1869 to start week 6.

Five straight sessions without a win has my bankroll teetering on the brink of busto. In those five sessions, I've lost $1440. I keep getting it in good against a donkey who calls my pfr with T6o, J4o, T4s, etc, flops a pair or weak draw, gets it in bad and sucks out.

I'm playing well. I'm not tilt-calling off in bad spots. Example: I held QQ, raised pf, got 1 caller (a player I had pegged as a calling station). Flop KQ4. Bet the pot. Villain calls. Turn T. I bet 3/4 pot. Villain calls. River J. I bet 1/3 pot and villain went all in. I folded, face-up. Villain showed ATo.

The above has become a recurring theme of 2nd best vs calling stations.
KK vs 52o. (Obv I raised pf, villain called from BB.) Flop 529sss (I have Ks). Bet, call. Turn Qh, bet, call. river Jc, bet, call.
QQ vs A3s, aipf. Board:667A9.
Called pfr w/AhTh vs QQ. Flop Tc6hTd, check-called. Donked turn 8h for half pot. River Qh. Donk-called a min raise. I would have folded if I hadn't made the flush.
AA vs J6s. He makes 2 pair.
AJ vs 99. Flop J64ss. Villain overbet the flop, I shoved. He calls my all-in thinking I have a draw. Turn 9.

The pot that really hurt last night was this one, even though it's not a bad beat:
Stack sizes: At the start of the hand, I have 90BB, villain has 110BB.
I'm dealt QsJs in MP. 2 limpers, I raise 5x. 3 callers.
Flop comes TsJh4s.
1 check, villain donks, I raise, folds back to villain who reraises. I thought about just calling. Villain's most likely holding is JT. 44 is also a possibility. I'm discounting naked straight or flush draws because this player would just call rather than reraise. So I think about the math. Against AJ/KJ, I'm a slight underdog. Against JT, it's basically the same, a slight underdog. Against a set it's a bit worse but not horrible.
I decide there's just too much equity to fold it. And if my flush comes, I don't want my opponent freezing up. I shove. Villain insta-calls and shows Th4h for bottom 2.
I'm actually a 52/47 favorite. But, I have to hit. Turn is the 8h.
Now I have more outs, but it can't be a heart.
River 5h.

Look, I realize that when the money went in, I was behind. I accept that. I own it. I just don't accept that I continue to play better cards and the donkeys are constantly getting lucky with trash. I realize bad beats happen. I just have a hard time swallowing the frequency with which I'm getting beat this week.

I just feel like I'm playing well, getting my money in good on a regular basis, and while I'm not happy with my results, I accept the concept that results and play are not directly connected in the short-term. Nevertheless, it is hurting my confidence in both my play and in the poker gods. I don't care who it is, when you're running bad, you can't feel 100% confident.
M

Live grind session turns into a trainwreck

WARNING: If you don't want to hear me whine like a little girl, stop reading. Don't like bad beat stories? Move along...nothing to read here.

Went to my closest casino, River Spirit. They have 4 tables of $1/$2 NL running, none of them are full. They put me at a table that has 2 open seats. I sit down, and immediately 2 players leave, so we're 5-handed.

NOTE: I bought in short for $100.

In my first hand, I'm UTG w/A9hh, and raise to $8. MP and CO call, everyone else folds. Flop A94ss. I lead for $16. MP folds, CO min-raises to $35. I shove for $74 , CO calls. CO has AJo. Turn 3h. River Jc. FML

I rebuy for $100, and run my stack up to $165 when this next hand comes up.

Table has filled up, and after a bunch of limpers, I'm on the button with KJo and raise to $12. BB calls, MP calls. Flop QT5hh. Checks to me, I bet $15 (pricing in my draw). BB min-raises to $30, MP folds, I call. Turn 9c. BB bets $30. I raise to $75. BB thinks for about 4 seconds and announces he's all in. I insta-call. BB has 9To. River Td. FML

I rebuy for $100, and run my stack up to $265 when this next hand comes up.

A reg UTG+1 raises to $10 pre, I'm on the button with 77 and call. I look at his stack...looked like he had a stack of $175 to 180. He should have at least $200 to make this call, but it's close enough. Flop J74r, bingo. UTG+1 bets $15. I pause briefly and raise to $35. He calls. Turn Ks. He checks. I bet $55. He shoves, I call. He has KK. FML.

Turns out I had him covered by $56 (meaning he had $209 to start the hand after all--he must have been holding some chips in his hand I didn't see) and I immediately cashed out and went home.

The first two were no big deal, shrugged it off, kept playing my A game. Can't decide if I should have gotten away from my set on the third one. I tend to think not. He could easily have AK/AA. Not going to worry about it too much.

My decision to quit was to prevent tilt should a 4th bad beat occur. It will be much easier to return to the game tomorrow, fresh and confident, than if I were to take another beat for a bunch of money. My stop loss is 3 BI's, and while I didn't lose that much, if I bought back in and lost again, I'd be over the limit, so I quit. The game will still be there tomorrow. And so will I.

Graphic Perspective

Sometimes you just don't want the reminder.

Looking at this graph:


Is a whole lot easier than looking at this graph:


'Nuff said.
M

Handling adversity

Imagine for a moment you're a major league baseball player. Your goal at the plate is to succeed in getting a hit roughly 30% of the time, and get on base 40%. In essence, this means you accept you are going to fail to do so 60% of the time. That is a harsh figure to cope with. To remain confident in your ability while failing more than half the time, and yet to continue to focus all your effort into succeeding at the plate. It takes a tremendous amount of mental toughness, physical ability, and an unfailing passion for the game.

Poker players face this same challenge. It's an odd occupation--playing poker--and if you're doing it for a living, it can also be tough on the people around you. One might speculate it's even tougher than for the ball player, as the poker player must succeed more often than he fails, just to beat the rake and break even.

I had a bit of a rough night tonight, and wanted to get a few thoughts written down now, in hopes that I can put the bad beats to bed, and free my mind from the ghosts of variance's past. Every few weeks or so, I have one of those nights where nothing seems to go right. I patiently wait for good hands, make good plays at the right times against the right opponents, and yet the deck rewards the weak player with the miracle river or runner-runner nuts hand after hand, ad nauseum. That's poker, and that's why weak players continue to play the game. Because sucking out is fun. And honestly, I want them to chase their 2- and 3-outers to the river every time. I'll take my pocket kings vs underpairs all the way to the river every time. I have to keep that in mind. I WANT them to chase to the river. If I am the favorite, I want them to chase. Please, oh please, chase that sliver of a chance to win.

Even so, what does it take to be able to make nights like this irrelevant? Because isn't that what it should be? Completely irrelevant to the one-long-session theory of poker? I'd like to think so--I'm just not there yet. Until I am, I'm going to need a few reassurances. So, let me take a minute to remind myself of some basic facts of the game.

Fact #1: Bad beats are inevitable. If you play poker, you're going to take bad beats. Lots of them. And sometimes, you're going to experience nights chock full of them. There's nothing you can do about it. Be patient, be appropriately aggressive, gather as much information as you can, and always re-evaluate as the hand plays out. That's all you can do. Make the best decisions you can and hope for the best.

Fact #2: The random number generator has no respect for pocket aces. Take a deck of cards, and deal out 6 hands, face up. Imagine how the preflop action might play out, but don't muck any cards just yet. Now deal out a 5-card board. Which hand is best? Pocket aces versus 5 other random hands only has about a 30% chance of winning the pot. The harsh truth is trash wins, and it wins most often in the hands of a weak but perennially hopeful player who's willing to take that trash hand to showdown.

Fact #3: Some players have no idea what they are doing and some are just gambling like crazy, and you should be overwhelmingly pleased to find them both at your tables. These players are the reason you play the game. They're the ones putting food on your table. Be nice to them, and congratulate them on that lucky river. If all goes well, they'll try to put a beat on you again.

So, self, here's my advice to you. First, stop focusing on the results. You can do everything right and still lose. Focus instead on making the best decisions you can, and let the results take care of themselves. Second, remember there is no doomswitch, there is no unholy conspiracy in place to separate you from your bankroll. There are the hands you're dealt and how you play them, and that's all. Third, remember that no matter how good you are, you are going to make mistakes. Fourth, learn all you can from your mistakes, and then forgive yourself for making them. Fifth, do not stand in the way of your own success through negative thought or action.

Okay, I think that should work for tonight. I especially like Fact #3. That reminder always makes me feel better.

M

Stats that make me LOL

I posted last night about my disappointment in my performance at the tables yesterday. But today, it's just making me chuckle.

Looking at my stats, I'm still improving. For instance, My win rate for all of 2010 was around 0.3BB/100. My win rate for 1st Qtr 2011 was 0.8BB/100. And despite giving back half of my April winnings in one night, my win rate for April stands at 1.11BB/100. Definitely headed in the right direction.

Looked at my session from last night and saw this and just couldn't believe it. AA won only 78.3% of the time, and KK won only 63.6% of the time. That's really, really low. Historically those numbers have been in the 85 to 90% range. In fact, they've been cracked so often this month that I've broken even playing KK. That's pretty hard to do. In limit hold'em, you're going to take KK to showdown unless you have an A on board, or the board pairs and there's too much action, or you get coordinated boards multi-way. I've been pretty good about letting KK go in these situations. It's the rivered 2-outers and rivered gutshots that are getting paid off for 2 big bets, and I don't think it's realistic to think I can (or should) get away from KK on the river in these spots while getting what is usually 8-to-1 on a call or better. The fact is the deck just isn't breaking even, and my aces and kings are getting cracked.

It's amusing to me, really, because it means I'm doing something right. It tells me that my method of game selection is working like it should. It tells me, combined with other stats I've looked at, that I'm picking the right opponents and continually putting myself in +EV situations. They aren't working out according to expectation, that's all. In the long run, however, they will. And I'm fine with that.

M