Tuesday, March 29, 2011

PTR accuracy, live poker attendance

I have a 2-part question. First, how accurate is PTR? I don't know and I'd really like some feedback. According to my Poker Tracker database, my lifetime winrate at LHE (excluding RUSH) for all stakes 0.46BB/100 over 389k hands. According to PTR, it's 0.89BB/100 over 223k hands. PTR missed 166k hands? So the accuracy/error rate for PTR stats is anywhere from 42% at worst to 57% at best? Hardly seems useful. I've been looking up some of my most frequent opponents to see if they're winning players or not, and if they are, then I spend a bit more time analyzing my play against them. Vs. losers I simply note to play ABC vs them as there's less adjusting to do to maximize profit. Anyways, can I really trust PTR when it reports a player as a winner?

2nd part: We all know the goal of making 1 BB per hour playing live LHE. What's a reasonable expectation for a winning player online? Yes, I know it depends. I don't expect to hear 1.5 and for that to be the whole story. I'd just like to hear from some winning players and figure out a range to see just where the range falls. If you're a LHE player, please leave a comment and tell me what your winrate is. (Or hook me up with a link or forum thread that covers it.) Thanks!

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Tulsa's live poker scene has been struggling the last couple of years. First, this was due to the downsizing of the Cherokee Casino poker room. The Cherokee was renamed the Hard Rock Casino and renovations have been going on for as long as I've been going there, which has been over three years now. I don't know exactly when it happened, but at some point the portion of the building the poker room (with its 25 tables) was in was demolished, and they moved the poker room to a much smaller area (13 tables) with no windows, no views looking out to the casino, etc. Second, and at the same time, the Creek Nation Casino opened it's new version of itself, the River Spirit casino. Personally, I think this one was an improvement. The new poker room is better lit, better design, 5 plasma screens, has more room between tables, and there are more food and beverage choices. So except for the notion that people don't like change, this one should have helped the situation. Third, the economy is in the toilet. I read a story every week that asserts Tulsa is better off than most of the nation, but no matter how you sugar-coat it our economy is still the pits. The limit games, which used to start daily at 5pm and run til 2am, lately they don't start til 8pm and then break by midnight. The 4/8 and 6/12 games can no longer be found; you have to be happy with 2/4 or 3/6...or switch to NL, but those games are light on players, too. Our third local casino, the Osage Million Dollar Elm, has the smallest poker room of the three and it's cash games, which used to run 24/7, now has hours of down time where no games are running at all. Their Friday morning NLHE tournament only had 25 entries.

Barring a reversal of fortune in the economy, what can be done to get people to the tables? I'm serious about this question, I really need some ideas.

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